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The bedrock of American democracy — the give and take of ideas among voters with disparate beliefs — is rapidly disappearing in much of the country. In its place is an increasingly isolated citizenry who live and work among those who think alike — and who vote alike.
To survive this development, each of the nation’s once-mainstream political parties have had to narrow their policy positions, becoming, at least on the face of it, more ideologically pure and less accepting of internal dissent.
That’s the conclusion of today’s installment of the series “Great Divide,” written by Bill Bishop of the Austin American-Statesman. An earlier story described the growing segregation of Republicans and Democrats, each of whom huddle together amongst their own, more so now than at any time in the past half-century.
Bishop’s data show that 1976 was a watershed year. For 28 years ending with that year (1948 to 1976), individual communities in the U.S. tended to become more politically diverse as time passed. But in the 28 years since 1976, those same communities have grown less politically diverse, with views (conservative and liberal) hardening.
As he puts it:
Republican voters became more likely to encounter Democrats at the courthouse and in the express line at the grocery. Democratic presidential voters became more likely to have Republicans as neighbors or bowling league partners.
There were still counties filled with Republicans and communities of mostly Democrats, but the average county was growing more politically diverse, at least when it came to presidential voting.
After 1976, however, the political mixture began to separate, and for the next six presidential elections, Republicans and Democrats pulled apart.
By the time George W. Bush narrowly defeated Al Gore in 2000, the nation’s counties had grown more politically segregated than at any time since the end of World War II.
Meanwhile, those majorities are growing. Nearly seven out of every 10 voters live in counties where presidential elections are becoming less competitive, according to a study of U.S. election data by the Austin American-Statesman’s statistical consultant, Robert Cushing.
Does it matter that American voters are increasingly living in ideologically homogenous communities? The Statesman-American queried more than a dozen political scientists, social psychologists and political pollsters, and they all said, yes, it matters a lot.
Like-minded people have a peculiar effect on each other. In groups, they become more extreme versions of what they were before. Conservative people, in groups, become more conservative. Liberals become more liberal.
As Campaign Desk noted about the first installment of “Great Divide,” this is the type of in-depth analysis of the American electorate that is almost non-existent in today’s campaign press. Bishop and his editors in Austin are to be commended for digging hard to find an unreported truth that has run under the surface of American politics for nearly three decades now.
–Susan Q. Stranahan
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